Any look at South Dakota politics must acknowledge the truth behind Kevin Woster's
recent analysis: "The Republican machine in South Dakota . . . . doesn't care much for outsiders. It also doesn't lose very often." That fact means that Governor Daugaard will get nearly everything he wants during the legislative session. That fact also means opponents on either the right or left are generally reduced to futile gestures. Here, in no particular order, are my predictions for establishment victories and futile gestures in 2014.
1. During the session, the far right will force a vote on some bizarre piece of legislation designed to show that their opponents lack patriotic virtue. The cynic in me believes the vote will be over something totally empty like amending the Pledge of Allegiance to read "with liberty, justice, and guns for all" or making Duck Dynasty the official TV show of South Dakota.
2. Bosworth's lack of competence will prevent her from breaking 12% in the Republican primary. Her hubris will keep her from dropping out.
3. Pressler's effect on the South Dakota U.S. Senate race will be minimal.
4. The Sturm und Drang over Common Core will be mildly entertaining but produce nothing.
5. South Dakota citizens will see an increase in some user fees. There will be a business tax reduction that proponents claim will be necessary to recruit new businesses.
6. Reverend Hickey's effort to repeal the death penalty will fail. I doubt it will get past the committee level.
7. The most competitive statewide race will be Corinna Robinson vs. Kristi Noem. Robinson will be the only South Dakota Democrat to break 47%.