Grading My Election Predictions

In late June, I made a few predictiosn about election day.  Here's the report card.

I predicted that Romney would win with 57%. The Secretary of State's website has Romney with 57.89%. I'll take an "A" for that prediction.

My guess on the Noem Varilek race was not as good. I predicted Noem would take in 54% if the vote. She got 57.45%. I can only give myself a "B-" on this one. The 4% difference is within most polls margin of error, but I really believed that Varilek would get 45% and that Romney would outpoll Noem by at least 2%.

I predicted that Democrats would make small gains in the state senate but still have a caucus with fewer than 10 members. David Montgomery gives the results as of late last night:

With current results at 2:30 a.m., the Democrats have picked up two seats in the state Senate, for a total of 7. That’s with the Rave-Ahlers race in District 25 still undecided, the Republican Rave ahead by 300 votes with five of 11 precincts fully reporting. Ahlers could conceivably win that and become the eighth Democratic senator.

I'll give myself an "A" for that one.

I also predicted that the sales tax initiative would fail with 60% of the vote. That prediction, like the Noem/Varilek prediction, deserves a "B-." It failed, but 56.72% is barely within traditional polls' margins of error.

My prediction on the large project development fund was, as the young'uns say, an epic fail. I was certain it would pass; it did not. I was also wrong about the HB 1234/RL16 campaign. SDEA ran a good campaign, and Governor Daugaard and his allies did not spend huge amount of cash.

Finally, I'll give myself a "B-" for predicting that Senator Thune would not be Romney's Veep pick. I incorrectly picked Portman instead of Ryan.

Twelve Predictions For 2012 (Part 2)

I posted my first six predictions here.

7. The Yankton School Board will pursue a second opt out.  The fact that the downtown Yankton post office is closing or has closed will be used as a reason to reject the opt out.

8. Trying to prove it's a real sport, NASCAR will have a work stoppage during 2012.

9. The San Diego ComicCon will have to be shut down when geeky fanboys and fangirls start a brawl during a session that has panelists discuss whether action movie sequels or Marvel/DC crossover events are more annoying.

10. The Republicans will select either Bill O'Reilly or Sean Hannity as the vice presidential nominee.  Rick Perry will take over as talk show host.  No one will notice any difference.

11. A group of Republican legislators will try to amend current civil rights law to gain minority status for the richest one percent of Americans.  Those sponsoring the legislation will seek protection for themselves as "irony challenged individuals of wealth."

12. Because each party has appropriated every President of the other party, political consultants will counsel candidates of both parties to claim the legacy of William Henry Harrison. In protest, Michael Beschloss and Doris Kearns Goodwin will refuse to do Sunday morning interview shows.

Twelve Predictions For 2012 (Part 1)

1. Because Republicans seemingly don't want to nominate Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich or any other current candidate, Speaker of the House John Boehner will link all upcoming votes about raising the debt ceiling to a constitutional amendment allowing 21-year olds to serve as President.  A brokered Republican convention will then nominate Tim Tebow who will unite the Republican base with a campaign pledge to use Tebowing as an enhanced interrogation technique.

Tebow will narrowly lose to Barack Obama because the Supreme Court will reject Republican claims that a Mike Prater 59-yard field goal should count as electoral votes.

2. Justice Anthony Kennedy will become the first documented case of spontaneous human combustion when he bursts into flames while trying to decide which way to vote on health care reform cases brought before the Supreme Court.

3. Joe Biden will resign as Vice President.  Democrats will create a reality show combining the worst parts of Survivor, American Idol, and Jersey Shore to determine his replacement.  South Dakota state senator Frank Kloucek will be one of the contestants.

4. The NBC, CBS, and ABC television networks will merge.  No one will notice.

5. South Dakota Democrats will field no legislative candidates in 2012,  South Dakota Republicans will win every seat in the legislature and immediately complain of being a persecuted minority.

6. Eminem and Carrie Underwood will release an acoustic opera album featuring electric auto-harp accompaniment.