Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Grading My Election Predictions

In late June, I made a few predictiosn about election day.  Here's the report card.

I predicted that Romney would win with 57%. The Secretary of State's website has Romney with 57.89%. I'll take an "A" for that prediction.

My guess on the Noem Varilek race was not as good. I predicted Noem would take in 54% if the vote. She got 57.45%. I can only give myself a "B-" on this one. The 4% difference is within most polls margin of error, but I really believed that Varilek would get 45% and that Romney would outpoll Noem by at least 2%.

I predicted that Democrats would make small gains in the state senate but still have a caucus with fewer than 10 members. David Montgomery gives the results as of late last night:
With current results at 2:30 a.m., the Democrats have picked up two seats in the state Senate, for a total of 7. That’s with the Rave-Ahlers race in District 25 still undecided, the Republican Rave ahead by 300 votes with five of 11 precincts fully reporting. Ahlers could conceivably win that and become the eighth Democratic senator.
I'll give myself an "A" for that one.

I also predicted that the sales tax initiative would fail with 60% of the vote. That prediction, like the Noem/Varilek prediction, deserves a "B-." It failed, but 56.72% is barely within traditional polls' margins of error.

My prediction on the large project development fund was, as the young'uns say, an epic fail. I was certain it would pass; it did not. I was also wrong about the HB 1234/RL16 campaign. SDEA ran a good campaign, and Governor Daugaard and his allies did not spend huge amount of cash.

Finally, I'll give myself a "B-" for predicting that Senator Thune would not be Romney's Veep pick. I incorrectly picked Portman instead of Ryan.


caheidelberger said...

Well done, Swami!

SDEA/NEA pour tons of money into RL16 opposition, Team Daugaard doesn't respond in kind... was this really just a total decoy to get SDEA to burn up a bunch of political capital? Or was it just a mistake on Team Daugaard's part? Did they pass this bill, thinking we wouldn't fight it, then realize they didn't stand a chance of winning at the polls?

Ken Santema said...

I was naive on the Noem/Varilek race. I thought Noem would win, but just by a couple points. Apparently South Dakota is more Red than I thought. (In my defense I've lived in MN before moving back to SD, politics are more split there). I really had no idea that Varilek didn't even have a chance.