Monday, June 25, 2012

My Predictions For November And Beyond

I'm going to be spending the week helping young Lincoln Douglas debaters learn a few rhetorical tricks.  We'll spend the week working on a variety of resolutions and looking at ways to affirm and negate them.  I've got my John Locke is better than John Rawls brief ready for "Resolved: Oppressive government is more desirable than no government."  We'll spend some time arguing about "Resolved: Rehabilitation ought to be valued above retribution in the United States criminal justice system."

Blogging will be sporadic, so I thought I'd make some predictions for November so readers can debate whether I'm a little out of touch or a lot out of touch.

1. Romney will carry South Dakota with 57% of the vote.  The Mormon factor will keep him from breaking 60%.

2. Kirsti Noem will defeat Matt Varilek with 54% of the vote.  Varilek will run a good campaign that will keep her from being seen as an unstoppable juggernaut.

3. Democrats will make a few gains in the state senate but their caucus still won't number in double digits.

4. The sales tax initiative will fail.  The vote will be 60% against.

5. Governor Daugaard will get his large project/slush fund rather easily.

6. I don't have a good feel for the consensus on HB 1234, so the prediction is Governor Daugaard and his allies will outspend those opposed to the bill by 4-1.  The textbook publishers/test writers will funnel money into the campaign.  SDEA will not run a good campaign.

7. Governor Daugaard will have charter school legislation in the 2013 legislature.  It's what all the big Republican Governors are doing.

8. John Thune will still be a senator in 2013.  I think Romney will pick Rob Portman from Ohio as his VP candidate.

1 comment:

cindythea said...

Aren't you the optimist! I can make one prediction that I am pretty confident will come true. The students will have a blast at debate camp. Oh yeah, it's debate camp, so the weather will be extremely hot.