I'm going to be spending the week helping young Lincoln Douglas debaters learn a few rhetorical tricks. We'll spend the week working on a variety of resolutions and looking at ways to affirm and negate them. I've got my John Locke is better than John Rawls brief ready for "Resolved: Oppressive government is more desirable than no government." We'll spend some time arguing about "Resolved: Rehabilitation ought to be valued above retribution in the United States criminal justice system."
Blogging will be sporadic, so I thought I'd make some predictions for November so readers can debate whether I'm a little out of touch or a lot out of touch.
1. Romney will carry South Dakota with 57% of the vote. The Mormon factor will keep him from breaking 60%.
2. Kirsti Noem will defeat Matt Varilek with 54% of the vote. Varilek will run a good campaign that will keep her from being seen as an unstoppable juggernaut.
3. Democrats will make a few gains in the state senate but their caucus still won't number in double digits.
4. The sales tax initiative will fail. The vote will be 60% against.
5. Governor Daugaard will get his large project/slush fund rather easily.
6. I don't have a good feel for the consensus on HB 1234, so the prediction is Governor Daugaard and his allies will outspend those opposed to the bill by 4-1. The textbook publishers/test writers will funnel money into the campaign. SDEA will not run a good campaign.
7. Governor Daugaard will have charter school legislation in the 2013 legislature. It's what all the big Republican Governors are doing.
8. John Thune will still be a senator in 2013. I think Romney will pick Rob Portman from Ohio as his VP candidate.
1 comment:
Aren't you the optimist! I can make one prediction that I am pretty confident will come true. The students will have a blast at debate camp. Oh yeah, it's debate camp, so the weather will be extremely hot.
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