Monday, November 3, 2014

2014 Election Night Over/Under Line

It's going to be a depressing night. South Dakota voters will grant Republicans more job security than the Soviet Union gave to members of the Politburo. I'd feel the same depression if South Dakota were a blue state, and Democrats were going to sweep. Single party rule is a disaster waiting to happen.

The only race that might prove interesting the United States Senate race, but even that race indicates that Republicans have come together to ensure a Rounds win. The real question is the voter margins with the following numbers

In the gubernatorial race, I'll set the number at 67.5% for Daugaard. 

In the disaster that is the U.S. House race, the number is 73.5%.

The most interesting race is the the United States Senate Race. I think Rounds will win. The number for the over/under bet is 45.9%. I know Bob Mercer has opined that Rounds will get 50%. As noted earlier, he Republicans are coming home to back the boy wearing an R on his jersey, but I don't think it's going to be enough to put Rounds over 50%.

The Secretary of State race should have been close; it won't be. The number here should mirror the U.S. House race. 73.5%.

The Democrats didn't nominate anyone for attorney general. Chad Haber is, well, he's Chad Haber, the husband of Annette Bosworth. I don't believe anyone will get over 90% in a general election but Jackley could come close. I'll set the number at 87.8%.

The rest of the constitutional offices share a 69.5% number.

1 comment:

Travis said...

I'll take the under on Daugaard - it'll be 66%

House, seems high, I'll take the under - 70% seems right here...

I'll actually take the under on Rounds, I'm feeding off of Doug's optimism and saying Weiland pulls an upset!

The rest - yeah, sounds about right - I'll not bet those!