Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2014 Political Predictions: South Dakota Politics Edition

Any look at South Dakota politics must acknowledge the truth behind Kevin Woster's recent analysis: "The Republican machine in South Dakota . . . . doesn't care much for outsiders. It also doesn't lose very often." That fact means that Governor Daugaard will get nearly everything he wants during the legislative session. That fact also means opponents on either the right or left are generally reduced to futile gestures. Here, in no particular order, are my predictions for establishment victories and futile gestures in 2014.

1. During the session, the far right will force a vote on some bizarre piece of legislation designed to show that their opponents lack patriotic virtue. The cynic in me believes the vote will be over something totally empty like amending the Pledge of Allegiance to read "with liberty, justice, and guns for all" or making Duck Dynasty the official TV show of South Dakota.

2. Bosworth's lack of competence will prevent her from breaking 12% in the Republican primary. Her hubris will keep her from dropping out.

3. Pressler's effect on the South Dakota U.S. Senate race will be minimal.

4. The Sturm und Drang over Common Core will be mildly entertaining but produce nothing.

5. South Dakota citizens will see an increase in some user fees. There will be a business tax reduction that proponents claim will be necessary to recruit new businesses.

6. Reverend Hickey's effort to repeal the death penalty will fail. I doubt it will get past the committee level.

7. The most competitive statewide race will be Corinna Robinson vs. Kristi Noem. Robinson will be the only South Dakota Democrat to break 47%.

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5 comments:

Troy said...

1). Since I consider myself "far right," I take personally your assertion and think you should move to California.

2). I think Bosworth will finish #2 in the primary. Despite the shortcomings, she is charismatic and has a base in this part of the state. She is the most Libertarian candidate in the race.

3-5). I agree

6). You might be right but this is an issue that usually gets changed after multi-year discussion. As a DP opponent, I am less concerned how the first game turns out as opposed to what happens when the season is over.

7). I agree this might be most competitive if topping 40% is "competitive." There is a chance nobody statewide will pass this number. Democrat dysfunction makes the GOP drama with the Hubbelcraft look like family banter at the kitchen table.

Kal Lis said...

Troy,

Re number 1: Happy New Year to you as well.

I hope you're right that the discussion about the death penalty will be multi-year.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Displaced Plainsman: My comments on some of your predictions. Three is accurate. Four There will be much discussion over Common Core. How it will go, who knows. Five. I doubt that. Six. The bill will die but it will begin a long term discussion in the state about the death penalty. Seven. I do not believe she will go about 43 %. One and two I will not comment on. Remember "The Catch." The Hawk

Troy said...

KL, you know the first comment was sarcasm and not directed at you but those who think I am liberal and should leave the GOP.

Kal Lis said...

Troy,

Yeah, the irony was perfectly clear. I should have made clear that I was doing my best friendly curmudgeon response.

I appreciate your comments even when we disagree.