Thursday, April 18, 2013

Political Odds Making--Because It's A Snow Day, So I Can Waste Time

Jon Schaff provides a useful if obvious reminder about the South Dakota races for the U.S. Senate and House:
But politics is a strange business. As has been said, this election will be decided by events which have yet to occur. We have time to watch those events play out.
With that caveat, I'll play oddsmaker on a snow day--ok it's a snow afternoon; school was dismissed early. I'll go one step further than the good professor and predict some numbers. I reserve the right to revise odds if a major event occurs before the primaries or if I'm wrong about the outcomes of the primary elections.

In the primaries:

The Republicans

Odds of Mike Rounds winning Republican nomination for Senate: 92.5%
Odds of Kristi Noem challenging Rounds: 33.3%
In a Rounds vs. Noem race, Rounds wins 53% to 47%.
In a Rounds vs. any Napoli/Nelson/Insert name here, Rounds wins 61%-39%.

If Noem runs for the House, she will not have a serious Republican challenger.

The Democrats

Odds of Brendan  running for Senate: 96%
Odds of Brendan Johnson being Democratic nominee for Senate: 58%
Odds of Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin seeking Senate: 40%
In a Johnson vs. Herseth-Sandlin race, Herseth-Sandlin wins 52% to 48%

Odds of Brendan Johnson running for House: 3%
Odds of Brendan Johnson not running for anything: 1%

Odds of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin seeking House: 45%
Odds of Herseth-Sandlin not running for anything: 51%**

In the general election:

Rounds defeats Johnson: 58% to 33%. A challenge from the right will get less than 10%.
Rounds defeats Herseth-Sandlin 49% to 46%. A challenge from the right will get about 5%.

Noem defeats Johnson 54% to 46%.
Herseth-Sandlin defeats Noem 50.6% to 49.4%.
Noem defeats Insert name here Democrat 62% to 38%

**Transposing numbers is really dumb. The original post had Herseth-Sandlin at 15% of not running for anything. Given that I have her at less than half for the House and less than half for the Senate, there's a better than half chance she won't run for anything.


caheidelberger said...

No serious GOP challenger to Noem if she stays in House? Yeah, I suppose incumbency would scare off insurgents there. But with Howie now trumpeting Napoli as a Senate candidate, might not a suitably stimulated Tea Party want to double the fun with Stace Nelson as a House candidate?

Kal Lis said...


I haven't read anything about a serious challenger to Noem. I may have missed something, and there may some internal workings that outsiders don't know about.

The far right seems satisfied with Noem. They hate Rounds. Noem seems to have the country club rich folks in her corner for now too.

Troy Jones said...

My only substantive disagreement, I think it less likely BJ will run for anything. Same with SHS.

Kal Lis said...

I have SHS as les than 1/2 for both because I doubt she's running.

You don't believe Johnson is going to get pushed into the Senate race? If he weren't going to, I would hope he would have the common sense to stop this weird courtship ritual.

Common sense would also dictate that SD voters won't elect someone to the U.S. Senate in his or her first political race

Kal Lis said...

Just saw my error. Thanks for making me double check. 51 and 15 are not the same