Saturday, October 6, 2012

What Will The Political Climate Be If Obama Wins?

Writing about the Jack Welch charge that President Obama and a cadre of loyalists cooked to books to make the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment report look better than it is, Dave Weigel makes the following observation and prediction:
In 1980, the exact same thing happened with the BLS report. The September labor report found unemployment dropping from 7.6 percent to 7.5 percent. I wasn't there, but a quick Lexising reveals no burst of BLS trutherism. There was, instead, a focus on other elements within the data. The way things are going, if the GOP doesn't win this election, I'd say there's a 20% chance of a congressional investigation into vote fraud and a 5% chance of an Avignon Presidency set up by those who refuse to believe the election was lost. [emphasis mine]
First, the idea that the one party "owns" the Presidency seems relatively recent. My first exposure to that idea expressed by "mainstream" members of a party is some Republican statements made during Clinton's first term

Second, I'm guessing that Weigel's numbers are low. The GOP will likely maintain control of the House of Representatives; the odds of the House attempting a Watergate style hearing if Obama wins a second term are much closer to 40%.

Given that people publicly express their desire that America should not "renig," Weigel's second number should be tripled. In fact, there's more than  a 5% chance that a South Dakota Republican legislator will offer a secession resolution if Obama is re-elected

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