And yet, Weiland still faces a long, uphill path to victory. Cory Heidelberger tweets that the Weiland campaign today released poll that showed Weiland within 10 points of Mike Rounds. That's much closer than other recent polls.
@People4Weiland release SDDP poll showing Rounds 34%, undecided 29%, Weiland 24%, Pressler 10%, Howie 3% (7/16-23, 3,387 voters, ±1.44%)A lot of things have to happen for Weiland to catch Mike Rounds
— CAHeidelberger (@coralhei) July 30, 2014
If all things stay as they are now, Weiland needs to get two out of every three of the undecided voters. I really don't know if that feat is possible for any Democrat in South Dakota. Mike Rounds is not going to bleed voters. He is going to get some undecided to swing his way on name recognition alone. He may get some Gordon Howie and Larry Pressler voters to return to the GOP fold as well
Further, Pressler and Howie can't take any of the undecideds who would otherwise vote for Weiland. Howie may have peaked, but Pressler may still win some of the undecideds to his column. The Weiland campaign has to see every undecided that goes to Pressler as going to Rounds. It's one more vote that they need but won't get.
Perhaps a perfect storm will happen. A scandal may stick to Rounds. Pressler may withdraw and endorse Weiland, but in late July 2014 those occurrences are as unlikely as the mythological Sisyphus being able to get the boulder to sit still on top of the hill.