Wednesday, July 30, 2014

The Weiland Campaign's Sisyphean Task

Rick Weiland has released a pair of well-done new ads. They reinforce a major campaign theme that big money is bad for politics, and they show Weiland as a happy prairie populist warrior. Well done and fun should be a winning formula

And yet, Weiland still faces a long, uphill path to victory. Cory Heidelberger tweets that the Weiland campaign today released poll that showed Weiland within 10 points of Mike Rounds. That's much closer than other recent polls.

A lot of things have to happen for Weiland to catch Mike Rounds

If all things stay as they are now, Weiland needs to get two out of every three of the undecided voters. I really don't know if that feat is possible for any Democrat in South Dakota. Mike Rounds is not going to bleed voters. He is going to get some undecided to swing his way on name recognition alone. He may get some Gordon Howie and Larry Pressler voters to return to the GOP fold as well

Further, Pressler and Howie can't take any of the undecideds who would otherwise vote for Weiland. Howie may have peaked, but Pressler may still win some of the undecideds to his column. The Weiland campaign has to see every undecided that goes to Pressler as going to Rounds. It's one more vote that they need but won't get.

Perhaps a perfect storm will happen. A scandal may stick to Rounds. Pressler may withdraw and endorse Weiland, but in late July 2014 those occurrences are as unlikely as the mythological Sisyphus being able to get the boulder to sit still on top of the hill.


M Larson said...

Love the new title banner.

I agree that these ads are really effective. The pace is quick, but not super frantic. He looks and sounds energetic and real; avoiding the plastic feel of Mike Rounds.

Kal Lis said...

Yes, he seems authentic in these ads; nothing seems forced. I'd add that he seems to enjoy taking a jab at Rounds's money.

Photo was taken on the old homestead. I suspect I may have to spend a day or two next summer tearing some stuff down.